Datasets:

rich123

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sfbm

like 0

Which state will have the highest real GDP growth rate in Q3 2024: California, Texas or Illinois?

[UCLA Forecast: Trump Deportations, Tariffs Create ‘Shadow of Uncertainty’ for California Economy](https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2024/12/11/ucla-forecast-trump-deportations-tariffs-create-shadow-of-uncertainty-for-california-economy/) | [Texas overcomes mid-summer doldrums as economic prospects improve](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2024/1114) | [Editorial: Time to sound the alarm on Illinois’ miserable economic performance](https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/07/14/editorial-jb-pritzker-economy-business-climate/)

Texas

2024-12-19T15:30:00Z

2024-12-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

How many books on the New York Times Best Sellers list will be tagged as "New this week" for the week of January 5, 2024?

The New York Times Bests Sellers list has been published regularly since 1931 making it, from a forecasting standpoint, itself an example of the [Lindy Effect](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.09045) in forecasting. According to [Book History, Volume 3](https://books.google.com/books?id=PEZkkbohbtoC\&pg=PA290#v=onepage\&q\&f=false), once a book makes it onto the Best Sellers list, that fact can be a huge driver of sales:  > Currently, once a book makes the Times list, the achievement is trumpeted in all further promotional material, the book is sought out by readers who habitually read best-sellers, and it is given special treatment by retailers. In their print and broadcast advertisements, publishers make the best-selling status of a book its most notable feature. Indeed, if the promotional machine was not already on before a title made the list, it soon goes into full force in order to capitalize on the book's apparent mass-market appeal. Furthermore, all of the major chains—both mall outlets and superstores—as well as many independents, Internet booksellers, and even bookstores in countries outside of the United States, create special sections just for the current New York Times best-sellers. Not only are the books displayed prominently, but they are usually discounted heavily, and therefore are one of the most economical buys available to book consumers. In addition, the only books that many nonbook retailers, such as supermarkets or discount stores, carry are New York Times best-sellers. With warehouse clubs taking an increasingly large share of the bookselling market, the power of the list to determine what books are likely to be bought grows accordingly. At the time of this question, the 20 most recent New York Times Best Sellers lists in hardcover fiction have had numbers of new entrants as follows. | Cover Date | # of New Books | | ------------ | -------------- | | Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | | Dec 15, 2024 | 5 | | Dec 8, 2024 | 7 | | Dec 1, 2024 | 5 | | Nov 24, 2024 | 5 | | Nov 17, 2024 | 6 | | Nov 10, 2024 | 4 | | Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | | Oct 27, 2024 | 4 | | Oct 20, 2024 | 6 | | Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | | Oct 6, 2024 | 5 | | Sep 29, 2024 | 3 | | Sep 22, 2024 | 8 | | Sep 15, 2024 | 1 | | Sep 8, 2024 | 4 | | Sep 1, 2024 | 6 | | Aug 25, 2024 | 3 | | Aug 18, 2024 | 4 | | Aug 11, 2024 | 2 | From a year ago, the December 31, 2023 list [had](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/2023/12/31/hardcover-fiction/) zero new entrants, and the January 7, 2024 list [had](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/2024/01/07/hardcover-fiction/) one.

0-2

2024-12-21T15:30:00Z

2024-12-20T15:30:00Z

resolved

How many unique posters will Bluesky have on December 29, 2024?

The Hollywood Reporter December 13, 2024: [Bluesky Hits 25M Users As Exodus From X Continues](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/bluesky-25-million-users-milestone-1236086109/) > Bluesky, the upstart social media platform, hit the important milestone of 25 million users early Friday morning. >   > The site continues to profit from people looking for an alternative to X (formerly Twitter), with Bluesky achieving phenomenal growth since Election Day. According to a Nov. 13 post by Bluesky CEO Jay Graber, the site had 6 million users in late August, nearly 11 million in late October and hit 15 million users on Nov. 15. It added another 5 million users in just five days, hitting 20 million users by Nov. 19. > Helping Bluesky establish itself as a viable and legitimate social media platform has been the rush of media groups, organizations, companies, sports teams and celebrities creating accounts over the last month.

828408.0

2024-12-21T15:30:00Z

2024-12-20T15:30:00Z

resolved

What will be the U.S. International Investment Position in the 3rd Quarter of 2024?

According to [the BEA](): > The international investment position (IIP) is a statistical balance sheet that presents the dollar value of U.S. financial assets and liabilities with respect to foreign residents at a specific point in time. BEA presents IIP statistics at the end of a quarter or year (March, June, September, and December). Beginning with statistics for the first quarter of 2023 released in June 2024, BEA also presents changes in end-of-quarter positions disaggregated into financial transactions, price changes, exchange-rate changes, and changes in volume and valuation not included elsewhere (n.i.e.). Statistics for changes in yearend positions disaggregated into these components are also available.The U.S. net IIP is defined as the value of U.S. assets less the value of U.S. liabilities. For Q2 2024, which was released September 25, 2024, the US net international investment position [was](https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/us-international-investment-position-2nd-quarter-2024) -$22.52 trillion. Assets were $36.00 trillion and liabilities were $58.52 trillion. 

-23.6

2024-12-19T15:30:00Z

2024-12-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the cheapest new Tesla Model Y be listed as under $44,990 on December 30, 2024?

As of December 11, 2024, this price was $44,990

no

2024-12-13T15:30:00Z

2024-12-12T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Grouse Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 20, 2024?

Vancouver Sun February 2024: ['Feels like a ripoff': Ski pass holders expecting discounts as some B.C. mountains remain closed](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ski-pass-holders-expecting-discounts-as-bc-mountains-remain-closed)

yes

2024-12-12T15:30:00Z

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Homestead, scheduled to open December 20, 2024, exceed $7,000,000?

Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-12-12T15:30:00Z

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

resolved

How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?

[A Complete Unknown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Complete_Unknown) is an upcoming biographical film about Bob Dylan by James Mangold, who also directed the 2005 biographical film *Walk the Line* about musician Johnny Cash. The movie stars Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan, Edward Norton as Pete Seeger and Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez. Christmas and the days following [are a popular time for movie attendance](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/this-is-the-most-important-week-of-the-year-for-movie-theater-owners.html) in the United States. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): > Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. > Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. > Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

annulled

2024-12-17T15:30:00Z

2024-12-14T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

2024-12-10T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Virginia Beach, VA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 4.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

2024-12-10T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Climeworks still exist on December 31, 2024?

annulled

2024-12-10T15:30:00Z

2024-12-09T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?

[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/): > On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/): > French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy. > Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.

yes

2024-12-07T15:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Joe Biden sign 4 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): >In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation) In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and). Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month: | Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 | | February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 | | March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 | | April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 | | May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 | | June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 | | July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 | | August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 | | September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 | | October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 | | November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 | | December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 | | Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 | | February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 | | March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 | | April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 | | May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 | | June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 | | July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 | | August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 | | September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 | | October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 | | November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 | | December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |

yes

2024-12-07T15:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): >In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation) In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and). Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month: | Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 | | February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 | | March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 | | April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 | | May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 | | June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 | | July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 | | August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 | | September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 | | October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 | | November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 | | December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 | | Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 | | February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 | | March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 | | April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 | | May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 | | June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 | | July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 | | August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 | | September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 | | October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 | | November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 | | December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |

yes

2024-12-07T15:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): >In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation) In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and). Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month: | Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 | | February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 | | March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 | | April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 | | May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 | | June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 | | July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 | | August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 | | September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 | | October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 | | November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 | | December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 | | Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 | | February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 | | March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 | | April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 | | May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 | | June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 | | July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 | | August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 | | September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 | | October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 | | November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 | | December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |

yes

2024-12-07T15:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Miami have at least 5 days of rain in December 2024?

At the time of this question, Miami is Abnormally Dry according to Drought.gov at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/florida/county/miami-dade).

yes

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Ghana declare a winner in its presidential election before January 1, 2025?

[Ghana’s December 2024 elections put the resilience of the country’s vaunted democracy to the test](https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test) | [Ghana 2024 Elections: A Risk Assessment of the Online Information Space](https://www.iri.org/resources/ghana-2024-elections-a-risk-assessment-of-the-online-information-space/)

yes

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024?

From the resolution source: "Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepest and deepest terrain, but it’s also great for beginner skiers and boarders. Where Is Alpental Ski Resort Located? The Summit at Snoqualmie is an hour from Seattle on Interstate 90."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024?

According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024?

According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."

yes

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024?

According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees?

According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees?

According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of >1.31 degrees?

According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."

yes

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?

[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/): > On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/): > French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy. > Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.

yes

2024-12-13T05:01:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024?

Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024))

yes

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6?

[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.

no

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4?

[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.

no

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than -4?

[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.

yes

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. On November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal.

annulled

2024-12-03T22:43:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $4.3 trillion in U.S. treasury securities at the end of December 2024?

Forbes: [The Fed’s SVB Like Woes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/shivaramrajgopal/2024/07/08/the-feds-svb-like-woes/)

annulled

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $550 billion in reverse repurchase agreements at the end of December 2024?

TrendForce: [Fed’s Reverse Repo Shrinks Significantly: Is Market Liquidity at Risk ?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/11/news-feds-reverse-repo-shrinks-significantly-is-market-liquidity-at-risk/)

no

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have less than $6.8 trillion in assets at the end of December 2024?

Reuters: [Fed's Powell says balance sheet drawdown continues amid rate cuts](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-balance-sheet-drawdown-continues-amid-rate-cuts-2024-09-18/)

no

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Ghana declare a winner in its presidential election before December 17, 2024?

[Ghana’s December 2024 elections put the resilience of the country’s vaunted democracy to the test](https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test) | [Ghana 2024 Elections: A Risk Assessment of the Online Information Space](https://www.iri.org/resources/ghana-2024-elections-a-risk-assessment-of-the-online-information-space/)

annulled

2024-12-02T23:04:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat the return of Congressman Donald Beyer's portfolio in 2024?

Benzinga: [Edward Snowden Contrasts Warren Buffett's Investment Skills with Nancy Pelosi, Dan Meuser: 'Fortunate to Be Represented by Extraordinary Talents](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/38016319/edward-snowden-contrasts-warren-buffetts-investment-skills-with-nancy-pelosi-dan-meuser-fortunate-to)

annulled

2024-12-03T13:41:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥175,000 for November 2024?

TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors? "The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥75,000 for November 2024?

TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors? "The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers for November 2024?

TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors? "The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024?

On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States.

yes

2024-11-30T15:30:00Z

2024-11-29T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the CDC report less than 50 cases of H5N1 in persons tested in the United States before January 1, 2025?

According to CDC at the resolution source, "Several recent A(H5) cases have been reported in the U.S. The CDC has been unable to isolate the virus from the recent human cases. As a result, CDC has been unable to determine the virus's neuraminidase subtype or whether it is likely an N1."

annulled

2024-11-28T15:30:00Z

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Calin Georgescu win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party.

annulled

2024-11-28T15:30:00Z

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Elena Lasconi win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party.

annulled

2024-11-28T15:30:00Z

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?

In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."

no

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the temperature in New York, NY ever go below 25 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?

In December 2022, this occurred, but in December 2023 it did not. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."

yes

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

resolved

How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): >In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation) In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and). Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month: | Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 | | February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 | | March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 | | April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 | | May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 | | June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 | | July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 | | August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 | | September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 | | October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 | | November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 | | December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 | | Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 | | February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 | | March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 | | April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 | | May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 | | June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 | | July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 | | August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 | | September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 | | October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 | | November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 | | December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |

4 or more

2024-12-20T05:01:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Who will win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party.

annulled

2024-12-06T19:44:00Z

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Providence, RI in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 5.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Los Angeles, CA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Orlando, FL in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 1.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Baltimore, MD in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

no

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Hartford, CT in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 7.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

no

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Y2K, scheduled to open December 6, 2024, exceed $5,000,000?

[BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the movie as follows: "Two high school nobodies make the decision to crash the last major celebration before the new millennium on New Year's Eve 1999. The night becomes even crazier than they could have ever dreamed when the clock strikes midnight." Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before January 1, 2025?

As of November 22, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped September 10, 2024.

annulled

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before January 1, 2025?

As of November 20, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024.

no

2024-11-23T15:30:00Z

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?

On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restrictions limited Ukraine's use of US missiles to occupied territories and attacks just across the border. The authorization came as a response to [the deployment](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2796pdm1lo) of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in their fight against Ukraine. On [November 19](https://www.ft.com/content/3f4654ec-4dbd-45d1-9d51-869993c717d0), Ukraine hit a weapons arsenal in Bryansk, 190km from the current frontlines.

ambiguous

2024-11-23T15:30:00Z

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?

[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million. Both films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/). Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-11-23T15:30:00Z

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Mt Seymour ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 13, 2024?

Vancouver Sun: [PSA: Metro Vancouver ski hills just received the first snow of the season](https://vancouversun.com/news/psa-metro-vancouver-ski-hills-just-received-the-first-snow-of-the-season) "Weather experts are also betting on a snowier winter this year compared to last year"

no

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the yield curve be non-inverted on Friday December 27, 2024?

As of Wednesdays November 20, 2024, the value shown was 0.10.

yes

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Comex Gold Spot prices remain below $2,800 per ounce through December 27, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance?

According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-best-gold-investments-to-make-before-2025-experts-say/): "Gold shattered historic records in 2024, hitting $2,790 per ounce in October, its upward price trajectory stemming from heavy central bank buying, ongoing inflation concerns and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, the investors who bought in early this year have already seen impressive returns, defying gold's reputation as only a long-term investment."

yes

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024?

According to TradingEconomics: "Lithium carbonated rose to CNY 79,000 per tonne after having traded near the three-year low of CNY 71,000 through late October, benefiting from supply curbs and an uptick in demand. The Chinese government enacted subsidies allowing people to trade older cars for electric vehicles in their latest push to support the sector, raising expectations that battery manufacturers may soon begin restocking lithium inputs. Despite relatively high stocks from a historical standpoint, battery manufacturers also reportedly raised purchasing activity amid risks of a trade war after Trump assumes office next year in the US. In turn, the plunge in prices during the year drove multiple mines in Australia and China to close or cut costs, resulting in 190 tons of lithium mine curtailments since 2023."

yes

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?

According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Kraven the Hunter, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?

According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, Kraven the Hunter is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

resolved

By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29608/how-much-richer-will-musk-be-than-everyone-on-jan-1-2025/ crosspost for Brown group

annulled

2024-11-21T23:29:00Z

2024-11-21T21:09:00Z

resolved

Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/ crosspost for Brown group

annulled

2024-11-21T23:33:00Z

2024-11-21T21:08:00Z

resolved

Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?

crosspost of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29902/will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award/ for Brown

yes

2024-12-13T05:20:00Z

2024-11-21T21:06:00Z

resolved

Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?

reference to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29903/will-the-icc-issue-any-warrants-in-nov-or-dec-2024/, but for the Brown group

annulled

2024-01-01T17:00:00Z

2024-11-21T21:04:00Z

resolved

Will Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win Console Game of the Year in the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?

The 2024 nominees for Console Game of the Year are Astro Bot, Dragon’s Dogma 2, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Helldivers 2, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown, and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on December 27, 2024?

Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on December 27, 2024?

Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.

yes

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs exceed 590 on December 27, 2024?

Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 3.0M for November 2024?

In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.8M for November 2024?

In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024?

In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024?

In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.`

yes

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?

On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restrictions limited Ukraine's use of US missiles to occupied territories and attacks just across the border. The authorization came as a response to [the deployment](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2796pdm1lo) of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in their fight against Ukraine. On [November 19](https://www.ft.com/content/3f4654ec-4dbd-45d1-9d51-869993c717d0), Ukraine hit a weapons arsenal in Bryansk, 190km from the current frontlines.

ambiguous

2024-12-19T23:44:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?

[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million. Both films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/). Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-12-19T23:00:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year?

[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)

yes

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?

Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)

yes

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?

Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)

no

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?

Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)

no

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the USDA-posted recall affecting Dearborn Sausage Company, Inc be closed before December 1, 2024?

According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were labeled as pork and vice versa. The swap also led to soy, a known allergen, not being declared on the beef wieners. The problem was discovered when the establishment received a complaint from a retailer that the products they received may have been incorrectly labeled. The establishment determined that they inadvertently mislabeled beef wiener products as beef and pork wiener products and vice versa. The products labeled as beef and pork wiener products actually contain beef wiener products that contain soy; therefore, soy is not declared on the finished product label. Additionally, the product labeled as beef wiener products actually contain beef and pork wiener products, therefore, pork is not declared on the finished product label. There have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products."

no

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will South Carolina have 400,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?

[Nearly four weeks without rain, drought conditions creeping back in South Carolina](https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/24/nearly-four-weeks-without-rain-drought-conditions-creeping-back-south-carolina/)

annulled

2024-11-18T19:05:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?

In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas. As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. The ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. See Also Base rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)

yes

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

yes

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?

[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November. [Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.

yes

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?

The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals. As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued.

yes

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Kelsea Ballerini or Lainey Wilson win the 2024 CMA Award for Female Vocalist of the Year?

[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)

yes

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

2024-11-14T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Chris Stapleton win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?

[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)

yes

2024-11-14T15:30:00Z

2024-11-13T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Hudson Bay Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 8, 2024?

In 2023 a [historic drought](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/el-nino-drought-bc-interior-ski-hills-1.7043016) caused [delays](https://www.interior-news.com/local-news/lack-of-snow-forces-hudson-bay-mountain-resort-to-delay-opening-7116185) in opening.

yes

2024-11-14T15:30:00Z

2024-11-13T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Dogecoin close at $0.420 a share before January 1, 2025?

Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)

yes

2024-11-14T15:30:00Z

2024-11-13T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs win the 2024 CMA Award forEntertainer of the Year?

[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)

no

2024-11-14T15:30:00Z

2024-11-13T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2025?

According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/): > The Biden administration...broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election - the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas. > A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation.

annulled

2024-11-12T22:34:00Z

2024-11-12T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?

[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)

yes

2024-11-13T15:30:00Z

2024-11-12T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Helldivers 2 win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?

[All the Golden Joystick Award 2024 Nominees](https://www.gfinityesports.com/article/all-the-golden-joystick-award-nominees-2024)

yes

2024-11-13T15:30:00Z

2024-11-12T15:30:00Z

resolved